stronger.". It is about how far the Fed is likely to tighten over the cycle, and the market already expects a fair amount. UBS characterises the Dollar's performance in 2018 as "dispersed" as they forecast it to weaken versus the Euro, end the year unchanged versus the Pound, strengthen versus the Yen and rise against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD). Starting in Q2 18, we expect EUR appreciation to renew on the back of an announcement around sequencing of ECB tightening. US Dollar, the package of modest tax cuts, which appears much more likely, may present some upside risks to our range-bound USD forecast into Q1 18, but we believe it is unlikely to challenge the highs seen at the beginning of 2017 or change the. Australian Dollar "We remain of the view that AUD should continue to be supported by a positive global backdrop.
2018 FX Outlook - ING Think
European Central Bank begun to eye an exit from the bond market, strategists. Japanese Yen "PM Abe's super-majority bolsters the chances that the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance. Even if changes at the Fed lead to a faster pace of rate hikes, we believe this is not likely to change the terminal rate in the current cycle and as such will aid further flattening in the US real online at home working yield curve. US Dollar "What matters for the USD is not the timing of the next hike. A steeper EUR curve vs persistent US curve flatness is likely to support EUR/USD convergence to its long-term fair value.".
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